Go back to insightsHow long might we live?
The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has revisited its projections for life expectancy.
Life expectancy estimates are important, not just for answering a common personal question, but because they underpin long-term economic forecasts, such as those produced annually by the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR). However, longevity is only one of several demographic assumptions used in these projections. Others, including fertility rates (currently around 1.4 children per woman) and net migration, are far more uncertain over the longer term.
The ONS has recently updated its UK life expectancy forecasts using mortality data from its 2024-based national population projections. These updates, typically released every two years, show relatively little change compared to the 2022-based estimates.
However, comparing them with earlier projections, particularly those based on 2014 data, reveals a notable shift. This change is clearly illustrated in the chart below, which tracks projected life expectancy for men and women reaching (or expected to reach) age 65 from 2020 onwards.
Source: ONS
Life expectancy projections based on the 2024 data show a noticeable decline compared to earlier estimates. For example, a woman aged 65 in 2026 is now expected to live 1.8 years less than projected under the 2014 assumptions, while the reduction for a man of the same age is 2.4 years.
This does not mean life expectancy is falling, people are still expected to live longer over time, as reflected in the upward trend in projections. However, the ONS now anticipates a slower rate of improvement than previously thought. This could influence upcoming government decisions, particularly on when to raise the State Pension age to 68, with the current timetable already set to reach 67 by April 2028.
If you are interested in your own outlook, the ONS provides an online life expectancy calculator. It is worth looking beyond the headline figure to view the detailed chart, including the probabilities of reaching ages 90 or 100. For those over 50, men have at least a one-in-three chance of living to 90, while women’s chances are close to one in two. The key question then becomes: will your pension savings last that long?
12th June 2026